The Economist Intelligence Unit, English firm providing forecasting and advisory services through research and analysis, such as monthly country reports, five-year country economic forecasts, country risk service reports, and industry reports predicts that the President of the Republic Paul Biya wont be candidate in the next election.
The Economie newspaper of May 24, 2016 reveals that on May 9, The Economist Intelligence Unit, a British intelligence firm, released a report. This concerns the political and economic situation in Cameroon. In that report, it states that in 2018, will be held in the country of Paul Biya presidential and parliamentary elections. In this regard the firm wrote “our central forecast is that Biya will not run for another seven-year term; at that time, he will be 85-year old and has been at the helm for 36 years. “
In the same report, the firm said that “President Paul Biya will remain the dominant political force until the next election in late 2018 – time in which we expect him to resign at the age of 85“. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, the maintenance of the Head of State Paul Biya in power will depend on his health. However, it points out that, “political stability is threatened from two angles: the uncertainty of the succession of Mr. Biya and the rise of Islamist extremism.“
About his succession the firm believes that “the most likely scenario is that one of the CPDM allies of Mr. Paul Biya will succeed him as President. The transition may lead to intense maneuvers within the CPDM. ” Lack of credibility shown by the opposition parties will make the ruling party to keep firm control of state institutions.
All that is generated, according to the report, will not be without consequence economically. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicted “4.6% growth rate in 2016 against nearly 6% envisaged by the Government. 5.5% of GDP between 2019-2020. The fiscal deficit would be 5.8% in 2016 “. However, notes the study, the State of Cameroon has relied on economic growth based on creating jobs.